Modelling suggests at its peak Nelson Marlborough can expect between 200 and 700 Omicron cases a day, the region’s chief medical officer says.
Dr Nick Baker said while the variant was leading to fewer hospitalisations, this could require the use of between 15 and 30 hospital beds for Covid-19 patients across the region at the peak of the outbreak.
Baker said there were various models projecting New Zealand’s cases, but you only had to study infection rates overseas to understand how the country might be affected by the Omicron variant.
“Most countries get a substantial surge with Omicron, much bigger than they have previously,” Dr Baker said.
“If you look at what’s happened in the UK, Australia and other places, they surge up to somewhere in the region of 2500 to 4000 cases a million, per day.
“Which in a New Zealand context, for the whole country, we’re getting somewhere between 6000 and 25,000 new cases a day.”
He said all modelling at the moment, indicated a peak by late March, or in April.
“Typically Omicron peaks five to 12 weeks after it starts,” he said.
“We’re hoping we can bend this curve by encouraging everyone to redouble their effort with mask wearing, QR coding, social distancing, hand-washing, staying away from people if they’re sick. All those basics, that will allow us to get a lower top peak.
“It's really important for us in the health system, to flatten that curve.”
It was become “increasingly clear” that Omicron was not as severe as previous variants, which could lead to fewer people getting tested for Covid-19.
“But it’s so contagious that it goes across a community very quickly,” he said.
“There will be quite a lot more disease than we know of, which makes the modelling a challenge.”
He said they expected those unvaccinated to be “over-represented” in hospitalisation rates.
Across a year it was expected case numbers would most likely be higher in Nelson than in Marlborough, due to Nelson's larger population.
“But on any particular day, the local burden of disease depends on local spread, so even a small community can get a major spreader event,” he said.
“Think about the Bluff wedding way back. So it could be even the smallest community could have a spreader event.”
Baker said while there was some high dependency care available in Wairau Hospital, Covid-19 patients who required ventilation would be transferred to Nelson or Wellington.
“If they come into hospital, and they’re deteriorating, and they look like they will need to be ventilated, it’s easier and safer to move them before they get desperately ill,” he said.
“We have a preference for Nelson, because it’s easier access for family.”
Covid-19 patients would be cared for in the hospital’s negative pressure rooms, which controlled airborne contaminants, such as bacteria and viruses, and restricted contaminated air from circulating.
“Covid is coming. Follow the instructions. Look at your household kits ready. Be ready to be self-sufficient,” he said.
“We will have so many cases in the community that not everyone will be able to get support. We want to reserve that support for those who desperately need it.”
By Maia Hart Local Democracy Reporter
