Emma Higgins, Rabo Bank senior analyst
This year still holds reasons to be optimistic, despite the uncertainty caused by both the Ukraine war and unknown political aspirations of China.
Where there is risk there is also opportunity. Farming leaders should be following the situation and weighing up ramification for the future. We know offshore competitors have been hampered by the impacts of inclement weather in South America, the west coast of the US and parts of Europe reducing their ability to ramp up production in the face of high prices.
We know costs are likely to remain elevated and fertiliser prices will be impacted by sanctions from Russia. It is a complex situation with rampant inflation added to the mix, and increasingly agri commodities are being used as a weapon.
Ukraine and Russia historically produce around 30 per cent of global wheat trade, with Ukraine a significant supplier of grain into Africa. Food shortages are a real risk as the war continues into the planting season in the northern hemisphere.
Locally, continued pressure on NZ agriculture to contribute to the broader climate and environmental cause will continue – and the milestones to meet this.
The speed and extent of changing land use from pastoral farming to forestry will need to be addressed this year to deliver the appropriate form and scale of afforestation required.
NZ ag has the unique opportunity to be true world leaders for solving the global methane issue in a way that is good for both farming businesses and the environment.
Now is the time to hold a broader discussion on future land use, farming systems and the role of technology in New Zealand agriculture.
