By Chris Schulz*
If everything was going to plan, the organisers behind Bay Dreams would have announced the world's biggest rapper - Kendrick Lamar - to headline their January music festival, set to be held in Tauranga and Queenstown.
But things have not gone to plan for Mitch Lowe and Toby Burrows, two Tauranga-based promoters who are confirming Bay Dreams, once the country's biggest music festivals, will not go ahead in 2025.
It is, they say, a "bittersweet" announcement forced by changing festival conditions, including rising costs, struggles to attract international headline talent, changing expectations from festival-goers and the ongoing cost of living crisis making ticket sales a struggle.
"We wanted to only deliver Bay Dreams at the highest level with the biggest artists," says Burrows. "If we couldn't deliver that we'd rather not do it this year, rather than come in with an undercooked one and destroy the brand."
Beginning in 2016, Bay Dreams grew quickly, attracting tens of thousands of fans to Mount Maunganui to see acts like Cardi B, Diplo and Tyler, the Creator headline bass-heavy line-ups across multiple stages.
By 2019, the festival was so popular it expanded to a second site in Nelson, which moved to Queenstown for 2024. At its peak, more than 50,000 people attended the two early-January events, making it the biggest festival held in Aotearoa at the time.
The pair call 2025 a "hiatus". "It's not the end of it," says Burrows. "We didn't want to deliver a sub-par Bay Dreams." But he predicts more festival promoters will make the same call they've just made. "I think there's going to be a lot that fall off after this summer ... It's hard to sell tickets at the moment."
Lowe and Burrows say they spent months trying to book Lamar across the first half of 2024. But, by May, the Compton rapper had released his biggest song - the streaming hit 'Not Like Us' - during an explosive feud with Drake eventually won by Lamar.
As Lamar's stock kept rising, the costs to bring him here went up. "His stats doubled," says Lowe. "It's not stuff you see every day." Agents for artists know how to capitalise on that momentum. "All of a sudden the fees double and it's not attainable for you because it's never going to work."
That, says Burrows, is one of the many reasons making a large, multi-stage festival operation more difficult. "The talent's so much more expensive nowadays," he says. "To get the big artists you're having to pay really big money. Headliners that were $300,000 to $350,000 are now wanting $1 million-plus. Then you're putting all your eggs in one basket ... and they may not cut through."
When Lamar proved too difficult, the pair tried to reel in other potential headliners for Bay Dreams. "The dates were held, the venues were held, the production was held, and we kept gunning for talent," Lowe says. "We doubled down to try and make it happen."
This, they say, is a trap festival promoters can fall into. "To get the big artists ... you're having to pay really big money," says Burrows. "That puts you in a space where you're gonna have to sell 25,000-30,000 tickets to break even."
Lowe calls that "calculated gambling".
"You get really good at it, but at the end of the day there are some factors totally out of your control ... there's a lot of risk involved."
By June, the pair say the risks were too high and they decided it was time to do something differently. "We made a decision to let it be driven by securing the right talent," Burrows says. "If that didn't happen, we'd take a break."
Lowe: "It wasn't going to work out, and we had to pass."
In March, UK electronic artist Fred again.. sold out shows around Aotearoa - including two at Spark Arena - by announcing dates and selling tickets with just a few days' notice.
That, says Lowe, proved to him that ticket-buyers are keen to see different event models, ones headlined by artists with cult followings. "I call it 'the Fred again.. effect,'" he says. "He came out and showed us what's possible if you put every fan into one room and everyone feels part of something."
For now, as long as costs stay as high as they are, they predict large-scale, multi-stage festivals will be a tough market to operate in. "I believe everything is a cycle," says Lowe. The decision to cancel next year's event should, he hopes, make their business more sustainable. "Luckily for us we took action before it was too late."
* Chris Schulz is a freelance entertainment writer and the author Boiler Room, an Aotearoa music newsletter.
